Is Amari Cooper A Dynasty Sell?
I've been a HUGE fan of Amari Cooper since he was at Alabama. When he went to the Raiders 4th overall in 2015, I liked him even more. He finally put it all together during his 5th NFL season which resulted in the WR10 finish in PPR scoring. However, as I was looking at his stats and comparing them to Michael Gallup's, I was surprised to see that Gallup was actually just as good. Initially you just see the overall finish, Amari WR10, Gallup WR22, but when you look closer you see that Gallup missed two games. Cooper averaged 15.4, Gallup 15.2. Gallup averaged more receiving yards per game, 79 to 74. He had a higher target share when on the field, 21.7% to 20.7%, which led him to average about a half a target more per game. He also averaged 11 more air yards per game. These metrics are all good for Gallup.
It got me to think, who would I rather have be my dynasty wide receiver? After thinking about it, the answer for me is still Cooper, but it's closer than I would have initially thought. The general consensus is that Cooper is worth a lot more in dynasty than Gallup....but should he be? FantasyPros dynasty rankings has him ranked as the 13th best dynasty asset. Gallup on the other hand is ranked 50. That to me seems like way too large of a gap. The biggest factor to me is the target share. Assuming Cooper stays in Dallas, you have to think the target share between the two will continue to be similar to what it was this season. That's not ideal for Cooper. A 20% target share is okay, but you'd like to see it be higher for your true number 1 wide receiver.
This is all a round-about way for me to say I think Cooper is a dynasty sell. I still like Amari Cooper, but we are now 5 seasons in and the highest we've seen him finish is the WR10 (15 ppg). If he is being valued as a Top 15 dynasty player in your league, I think it would be worth kicking the tires and seeing what you can get for him, because I think his value won't be any higher. Gallup showed he is more than just a complimentary player. Now Amari could still sign with another team, but there is no guarantee it would even be a better situation, it could get worse. Players ranked behind Amari that I would rather have include Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, D.J. Moore, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle and Miles Sanders to name a few. It's possible you could get any of those players plus more. That's a move I'd look at making. In dynasty it's all about cashing out at max value at the right time, and I think right now might just be that for Amari.