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Joe vs the Pros


Dynasty Guide with Top 300 Rankings and Top 50 Rookie Rankings

The easy 1.01 in the NFL Draft this year is LSU's Joe Burrow. There is nothing more to say about it. The Cincinnati Bengals will draft him. There will be no trades. They won't overthink it. But how confident should we be that he will be an elite signal caller. Only time will tell, but there are a few things going in Joe's favor, one of those being his college Total QBR. If you are unfamiliar with this metric, it was created by ESPN with input from none other than Jon Gruden. It's different than Quarterback Rating because it takes more things into consideration like quarterback rushes, sacks, penalties attributed to the QB, garbage time, etc. So it gives a clearer picture of how good the quarterback was than a boxscore can. Here are the Top 20 Total QBR Ratings for college quarterbacks going back to 2013 when the metric was last updated.

rk Name QBR College
1 Kyler Murray 95.8 Oklahoma
2 Joe Burrow 94.9 LSU
3 Russell Wilson 93.9 Wisconsin
4 Andrew Luck 93.2 Stanford
5 Baker Mayfield 92.6 Oklahoma
6 Sam Bradford 91.6 Oklahoma
7 Marcus Mariota 90.9 Oregon
8 Johnny Manziel 90.3 Texas A&M
9 Kellen Moore 89.8 Boise State
10 Cam Newton 89.4 Auburn
11 Jameis Winston 89.4 Florida State
12 Colin Kaepernick 88.3 Nevada
13 Brandon Allen 87.9 Arkansas
14 Aaron Murray 87.1 Georgia
15 Colt McCoy 86.9 Texas
16 Bryce Petty 86.6 Baylor
17 Dwayne Haskins 86.3 Ohio State
18 Kevin Hogan 85.9 Stanford
19 Zach Mettenberger 85.7 LSU
20 Dennis Dixon 85 Oregon

As you can see, there are some really good names at the top of this list. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are both Top 5 Dynasty and Redraft Quarterbacks, and his metrics compare very nicely with theirs. 

 

Kyler Murray

Joe Burrow

Russell Wilson

Other things going for Joe Burrow is his completion percentage. You have to go all the way back to Colt McCoy in 2008 to find a completion percentage higher than Burrow's 76.3%. His yards per attempt of 10.8 is also very good. Also, the level of competition was as good as it gets. He completed the greatest quarterback season of all time in the SEC. The guy threw 60 friggin touchdowns vs competition that included teams like Georgia, Mississippi State, UCF, Florida and Alabama. We also saw him torch Oklahoma and Clemson in the College Football Playoffs.

I also think his landing spot helps. In Cincinnati, he has an offensive-minded head coach with tons of talent around him. He couldn't ask for a better set of skill-position players. 

There are blemishes on his resume however. His final season at LSU while historic was the only decent season he had in his entire college career, which isn't a good thing. He is also coming out as a 23-year old rookie. That's not ideal. You prefer younger experienced quarterbacks coming out as 21 or 22 year olds like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.

While I do really like Burrow, I'm not sure he will not be an elite fantasy prospect like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. And I don't like him as much as I did Kyler Murray last season. I see him as more of an upgraded Jared Goff with rushing upside similar to Aaron Rodgers. In dynasty drafts, I'd be looking to take him in the mid 2nd round.

Thank you to @designedbyjohnny for the Joe Burrow jersey swap.

If you are interested in playing year round fantasy football, consider joining a dynasty league. The offseason is just as fun as the regular season. Once you start playing dynasty, redraft leagues will feel like a cake walk. Click here to learn more about what a dynasty league is and how it differs from your traditional fantasy football league, and if you're interested in finding a league, shoot me an email.

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