Game Splits: Nick Chubb
Going into the 2019 season, there was a lot of speculation on how much of an impact Kareem Hunt would have on Nick Chubb's snap share. Because of this, there were a lot of differing opinions on how high Chubb should be drafted. Some thought Hunt wouldn't play much of a role, myself included, while some thought he would overtake Chubb as the lead back. It ended up being sort of in the middle.
Weeks 1-9: Nick Chubb rushed for the 4th most yards in the league and was 2nd only to Christian McCaffrey in rushing yards per game. He was the PPR RB6, the RB5 in points per game......then came Hunt.
Weeks 10-16: When Hunt entered the picture, Chubb's snape share dropped from 87% to 65%. His rushing yards per game dropped from 100 to 92. His receptions during that time were cut in half from 3 per game to 1.5. Because of this, his fantasy production dropped from 18.9 points per game to 14.1, good for the RB20....just 2 spots above Hunt.
Going into 2020, we are not sure exactly if Hunt will play with Cleveland. He's a restricted free agent, and the Browns have expressed interest in keeping him there long term. I don't see that happening, but I do think there is a more than decent chance he plays there in 2020. So, for now, I'm projecting Chubb as if Hunt is playing in Cleveland.
Now, I'm one of the biggest Nick Chubb fans there is. I've said this before on here, but I was lucky enough to attend the 2018 NFL draft and turn in a team's draft pick. That pick ended up being Chubb. So, he's always going to have a soft spot for me. However, I can't ignore the impact Hunt had on him last year. He went from being borderline elite to just slightly above average. He went from a mid-range RB1 to a back end RB2.
What can we expect going forward? The Browns' new head coach Kevin Stefanski brings with him a healthy rushing attack that just helped Dalvin Cook have a breakout season. The Vikings rushed the football 83 more times than Cleveland under Stefanski's direction. Dalvin Cook had a snap share only slightly higher than what Chubb had in the games Hunt was playing. My initial thoughts are that we will not see Chubb do what he did prior to Hunt's activation, but I do think he will be slightly better than he was on the back end of 2019. I'm thinking 15-16 points per game. Somewhere in the RB8-12 range.
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