Finding Quarterback Value Through Advanced Stats
This is my third article about how you can find values in your fantasy drafts through data by combining different metrics into one spreadsheet, ranking the players by those metrics, and then taking the averages of the combined rankings. The last two articles were about wide receivers and tight ends. For quarterbacks I used important metrics such as:
- Team Pass Plays Per Game
- Attempts Per Game
- Deep Attempts Per Game
- Red Zone Attempts Per Game
- Touchdown Rate
- Passing Yards Per Game
- Rushing Yards Per Game
- Rushing Attempts Per Game
- Red Zone Rush Attempts Per Game
Now, this list doesn't mean that a player who ranked higher in all of these categories is necessarily going to be amazing. A player like Lamar Jackson didn't even make the top 10, but he was SO amazing in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and passing touchdowns that he blew past the competition. However, if a player ranks high in the majority of these categories, then they have the potential to be a value. You want your quarterback throwing, running, and throwing and rushing near the endzone as much as possible. Players who ranked high in these categories who I think can be a value based on ADP from FantasyData are Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, Matt Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
DANIEL JONES: On a points per game bases, Jones was top 12 during his rookie season. While his ADP of QB14 is not as low as some of the other quarterbacks on this list, his upside is likely the highest. He has great rushing upside and is worth the low QB14 adp investment.
GARDNER MINSHEW: The 6th round pick was forced into action right away in 2019 as Nick Foles broke his collar bone during the first half of week 1 vs Kansas City, and he performed surprisingly well. He finished the season as the QB19 playing in only 14 games. Part of the upside he brings is with his feet as he accounted for 344 rushing yards, ranked 5th at the position. Minshew has a low ceiling, but a decent floor due to his rushing upside and the 10th most team pass plays per game due to Jacksonville's often negative gamescript. With an ADP of QB31 he makes for a perfect "Wait on quarterback" approach.
MATT STAFFORD: From weeks 1-9, Stafford was the QB6, but then a back injury forced him to sit the rest of the season and allowed most people to forget how good he really was for half the season. With an ADP of QB18, he can be a great value later in your drafts.
RYAN FITZPATRICK: When he finally took over in week 7, Fitzpatrick was on fire. In fact, he was 2nd to only Lamar Jackson in total points during that stretch. There is a good chance he starts the entire season while Miami lets rookie Tua heal/learn. Fitzpatrick has potentially the best value based on where he is being drafted. The uncertainty is understandable, but he is WELL worth the risk with an ADP of QB35.
Below is a list of 32 quarterbacks from all the NFL teams.
You can create similar spreadsheets using any metrics you want based on what you find important with your fantasy players and league scoring settings. Give it a try, you might be surprised what you find.
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