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Fantasy Football Value Changes

Ok, the first wave of Free Agency has hit, and it's been a wild ride. There were some surprise signings and some HUGE trades. I'll write a few of them here and give my thoughts on Fantasy Football implications. I'll continue to give my thoughts on the other signings/trades in some later posts.

DeAndre Hopkins: This was the biggest deal of the day yesterday. The Texans and Cardinals made a trade involving DeAndre Hopkins, David Johnson and some draft picks swaps. As for fantasy purposes, I see this as a slight downgrade for Nuk. He now has to compete with future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald as well as third year pro Christian Kirk in an offense that runs the most 4-wide receiver sets in the league. Pass volume is there in Arizona, but I think the lost connection with DeShaun Watson will cause a target share decrease and overall fantasy decrease. He will drop in my rankings.

Christian Kirk: This is bad news for Kirk. The only thing that was holding him back in Arizona were injuries and an aging Larry Fitzgerald. Now the Cardinals just added one of the best wide receivers in the league. This crushes Kirk's value. 

Kyler Murray: This is great news for Kyler Murray. Anytime you add one of the best wide receivers in the game, you go up in value. In all likelihood, Murray will be my third ranked QB behind only Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. 

Kenyan Drake: Drake automatically becomes a Top 10 running back in all formats. He finished as the RB4 in ppr scoring once he took over as running back last year and I don't see anything slowing him down. That offense is going to be fun.

David Johnson: When I saw that the Cardinals franchise tagged Kenyan Drake, I figured DJ was getting dealt, and thankfully he was. His value was dead in Arizona with Drake there and he now has a chance to redeem his career in an offense that suits him well. He will get a big jump in my rankings.

Will Fuller: Fuller gets a big bump in my rankings as he should be DeShaun Watson's main target. If he can stay healthy (which is a BIG if), he has a chance to finish as a WR2 next season.

Deshaun Watson: There is no way to sugar coat it, this is a bad deal for Watson. His legs will still keep him high in the QB rankings, but he will most surely drop a few spots. I see him as going from a high-end QB1 to more of a mid-range QB1 with more inconsistency. 

Stefon Diggs: Diggs was begging to get traded and he got what he wished for. The Vikings dealt him a Monsters, Inc. style banishment to Buffalo. He gets to go from one frozen city to another, only this time with no temperature-controlled heating. I see this as a lateral move. I don't believe Josh Allen has the touch on his passes to mesh well with Stefon Diggs crisp route running. I see it as a wash.

Adam Theilen: This trade I see as being HUGE for Theilen. He is going to flirt with a 30% target share and will likely get to the kind of scoring we saw from him during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 

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