ADP Dilemma: RD1 - Cook vs Henry
I'm creating a series of articles talking about ADP Dilemma's during each round of the draft. The first dilemma I'm seeing is which running back to take in the middle of round 1 between Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Their ADP is just one spot apart, 6 and 7. It's a really tough one to call. Both running backs had very similar seasons. They finished just two total points apart, Henry with 294 and Cook with 292. Granted, Cook played in one less game. You can see just how close their stats were in the graphic below.
Pulled from the 2020 Draft Guide
Going into 2020, there are even more similarities that make deciding tough. Both players have the same bye week, so that won't work as a tie breaker. They also have the 5th and 6th easiest fantasy schedules among running backs, so there really isn't a tie-breaker there either. For me it all comes back to ONE THING....receiving ability. Both players will get a lot of volume, but Cook will get more of his in the receiving game. He had 53 receptions last year vs only 18 for Henry. Targets in the passing game are worth more than rushing attempts. According to Sharp Football Analysis 94% of Henry's regular season touches came from rushing alone. That accounted for 85% of his fantasy points. The average for the other 11 Top 12 running backs in the league was only 58%. It's rare in today's NFL to have any back finish in the Top 12 with as little receiving production as Henry has had.
Now, that doesn't mean Henry won't finish as a top 12 running back. I think he absolutely will. In fact I just drafting him as my RB1 in the IG Experts League. He should be expected to lead the league in rushing touchdowns again in 2020. I can't however ignore his floor. In 34 career games where he did not score a touchdown, he has never finished as a Top 24 option. That's the difference and why I'm taking Cook over Henry in this debate.