7 Risky Picks

Dynasty Guide with Top 300 Rankings and Top 50 Rookie Rankings

In the early rounds of your drafts it's imperative that you avoid mistakes. Just ask those who drafted David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell over the past two seasons. It can wreck your season missing on an early draft pick. Here are 7 players I'm likely avoiding due to where their current ADP is sitting.

Patrick MahomesPatrick Mahomes: I love the player. He's the best quarterback in the game right now, but I absolutely HATE his 2nd round ADP. Currently going as the 22nd player off the board is WAY TOO HIGH. The only QB I can currently justify as a 2nd round pick is Lamar Jackson, and that's because for the first time, I think we have a player that might just be like something we've never seen before. I don't know that Mahomes is on that "Fantasy" level. While he offers some value with his legs, he's not a running QB evident on ranking 10th at the position in rushing yards per game. He has to score his points through the air. Mahomes averaged only the 5th most fantasy points per game last year and was only slightly better than the QB11 Josh Allen. In order to be worth a 2nd round pick as a quarterback, you have to be exceedingly better than all other quarterbacks. Like he was in 2018. Or like Peyton Manning was in 2013. You need to be 4-5 points per game better than your competition to justify that ranking, and I just don't see it. Not with the depth at this quarterback class. I don't see Mahomes being that much better than Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Kyler Murray or even Tom Brady. It's so hard to be that much better when you're almost strictly relying on your passing. He's a hard pass for me in round 2.

Kenyan DrakeKenyan Drake: Now, to be clear, I like Drake this year. I think what we saw in the 2nd half of last year can be repeated by him in 2020. However, this is a running back who has never truly shown the ability to be an every down back for an entire season. It's possible he won't be able to hold up. He's a player however that I think is worth the risk at the beginning of the 2nd round. I'll likely be pushing that draft button on him if given the chance.

DeAndre HopkinsDeAndre Hopkins: In 2019 Hopkins finished as the #11 player overall excluding quarterbacks. Now after moving from the Texans to the Cardinals he's being drafted as the #9 pick. I'm not on board with this and in fact I have him ranked a good 10 picks later than that. He goes from Deshaun Watson to Kyler Murray. At best that's a wash. Both QB's averaged 33 pass attempts per game last year, except now he goes from a team in Houston who's best 2nd receiving option Will Fuller only played in 11 games. His new team has two wideouts in Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk who both had target shares of over 20%. Not to mention it's a new offense, new scheme and a shortened offseason. Have I convinced you yet? 🤣

Derrick HenryDerrick Henry: When you don't catch passes as a running back it limits your ceiling and floor. Henry only caught 18 passes in 2019. Of the 100 Top 10 RB finishes over the last 10 years only 4 were able to do it by catching fewer than 20 passes. When you're not catching passes it means you're only scoring doing one thing, rushing yards and touchdowns. In order for that to repeat for Henry, Ryan Tannehill will need to continue his insane efficiency. Maybe he does? Maybe he doesn't. If the Titans take a step back in 2020, Henry will take a step back. If they are playing from behind, he might not be on the field. I'm a little on the fence with Henry. He's a guy I'd much rather wait and get at the end of the first round, but that's not currently happening with his #7 ADP. He's a player I'm likely going to avoid in 2020.

Aaron JonesAaron Jones: Jones is another player I'm on the fence with. One thing's for certain though, he's not scoring the 19 touchdowns he did in 2019. I don't hate his ADP, but just remember, the Packers used a 2nd round pick on A.J. Dillon. NFL GM's don't use 2nd round picks on goal line backs. Dillon is going to see the field, and not just near the goal line. He's not only going to vulture touchdowns, he going to vulture playing time, and that makes Jones a risky mid-2nd round pick that I'd rather get closer to the end of the 2nd.

Chris CarsonChris Carson: Carson is a player I like, but don't love. I also happen to think we saw Carson's ceiling last year. He's an upright runner who's always going to be an injury risk as well as a benching risk based on his 7 fumbles last year. The team also added Carlos Hyde who is a similar type of runner. I don't see Carson sniffing the 278 rushing attempts he had in 2019 and I'd rather take some players with higher upside at the end of the third round.

JuJu Smith-SchusterJuJu Smith-Schuster: It seems like with JuJu, you either love him or hate him. Those that love him point to his first two seasons in the league and the fact that Big Ben was out for the year. Those who hate him say he benefited from soft coverage playing alongside of Antonio Brown. I'm on the side of the latter. I don't think of JuJu as an elite talent, and I think he was exposed last season. While I do understand he was playing with subpar QB play last season, so were a lot of wide receivers who were much better. Just talk to Kenny Golladay. I'm not touching JuJu in the 3rd round

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