DRAFT GUIDE w/ PFF

Hill has finished as a Top 3 WR in 2 of the past 3 seasons. I have him as my WR1 for 2021 based on the uncertainty we have with Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. There is some risk of him regressing in TDs. He had 15 receiving TDs, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. However, his 9 targets per game ranked 8th in the league, and that's more than enough for a playmaker like Hill to be an easy Top 5 WR.

Diggs finally turned into the Elite fantasy WR we all have been waiting for. He just needed the volume....and he got it. His 166 targets lead the NFL. Diggs should be able to have similar 2021 numbers. His TD% also referred to as TD Dependency (% of fantasy points from TDS) of 14.6% ranked 61st among wideouts. Expect another Top 5 finish from Diggs in 2021.

Ridley broke out in a big way in 2020, finishing as the WR5 in points per game and leading the league with an absurd 2,063 air yards. For those worried that with Julio gone, teams will focus on Ridley and take him away, don't be. Ridley averaged 20 points per game in the 7 games Julio sat out in 2020 without ever scoring less than 10. He'll be fine and should be viewed as a mid-late WR1.

Hopkins was amazing in 2020 after being traded, and while I think the additions of Green and Moore could see Hopkins targets take a slight dip, it won't be enough to downgrade him. He should more than makeup for that with positive touchdown regression. He only had 6 TDs on 115 receptions for an incredibly low 12.5% TD dependency.

Adams' 2020 season was historic. He averaged a full 2 points per game more than Michael Thomas's historic 2019 season. Much of that can be credited to his 18 receiving TDs. A number that will surely come down no matter who is slinging the ball. With Rodgers, Adams needs to be the first WR off the board. No matter how much regression we predict. Without Rodgers, obviously, that's a different story. In the 2nd scenario, I'd look at Adams as a back-end WR1. I'd actually view him in the same area as I do Michael Thomas currently. In 2017, Rodgers was only able to play in 7 games and Adams was able to finish the year 8th in points per game with Brett Hundley behind center.

DK broke out in 2020 with 83 catches, over 1,300 yards, and 10 TDs. He finished the year as the WR7. There is no reason to expect anything less from the athletic specimen, and I expect another Top 7 finish in 2021.

The 2020 rookie had an amazing season where he racked up 1,400 yards. Going into his 2nd season there is no reason to believe he can't do even better. His 7 TDs only accounted for 15.3% of his points (57th). The 22-year-old should be considered a Top 10 option for 2021.

The fantasy community has finally started to respect what Keenan has done for pretty much his entire career, given his current ADP of WR8. His 17.5 points per game in 2020 ranked 6th, but he was actually much better than that as he was injured and very limited in two of those contests, skewing the number. He is very safe in that range, and will likely be better than that if he stays healthy.

MT's first 4 years in the league were magical culminating with a record-setting season in 2019. 2020 was a much different story. A week 1 ankle injury limited Thomas to just 7 games, and he was obviously hampered by the injury when he did play. The good news for 2021 is that he should be fully healthy, and while he did lose a future HOF QB, he now gets one that will likely target him further down the field. We saw Chris Godwin finish as the WR2 in 2019 with Jameis under center, and I wouldn't be surprised if he can do the same for Thomas. He has serious positive TD regression given that he didn't score any in 2020. I like Mike as a mid-back end WR1 in 2021.

I see these two as the 1A and 1B in this passing offense in 2021. They were the WR8 and WR11 through the first 5 weeks until Dak's injury. Both averaged similar points per game last season and had terribly low TD Dependency. A healthy Dak and positive TD regression should see Amari back in the WR1 conversation and Lamb right behind him as a low-mid WR2.

Always the victim of bad QB play, ARob just always seems to get it done. This year should be no different. The WR9 from last season should maintain his place as a back-end WR1 for 2021.

This looks like the year we see Scary Terry sprint to a WR1 finish. He has everything going for him. He's one of the most targeted WRs in the league and now has a YOLO QB who isn't afraid to chuck it up to him. He also has positive regression coming in the touchdown department. Get ready folks.

As has been the case for Lockett the past couple of years, his season was full of ups and downs. He finished right behind teammate DK as the WR8, but a jaw-dropping 53 point week 7 performance made up 20% of it. Like the rest of Seattle's offense, he faded down the stretch. However, the gap between Lockett's May 22nd WR23 ADP vs DK's (WR5) seems too far, and unwarranted. He could be a great value in 2021.

I see these two as the 1A and 1B in this passing offense in 2021. They were the WR8 and WR11 through the first 5 weeks until Dak's injury. Both averaged similar points per game last season and had terribly low TD Dependency. A healthy Dak and positive TD regression should see Amari back in the WR1 conversation and Lamb right behind him as a low-mid WR2.

Moore has been solid since entering the league but has never broken out to the level the fantasy community would like, and I don't see it happening in 2021 either. His new QB is hardly an upgrade and he now has added competition from returning Christian McCaffrey and rookie Terrace Marshall. He could however be a value compared to his WR25 ADP. His TD-Dependency of 11.3% ranked 75th among WRs. I have him as a mid-range WR2 for 2021.

Woods is my bet to lead this team in receptions. The underappreciated WR just gets it done year in and year out, and he should do that again in 2021 on his way to a high-end WR2 season.

The 5th most targeted WR from 2020 was great last season, the only thing that held him back was injuries. He left three games early due to injury, which skewed his points per game. His 14.8 points per game which ranked 22nd, are closer to 19 points per game when you remove those games he left early. Those are Top 5 WR numbers. I have him as a high-mid WR2, but if he can stay healthy and cut back on some of his drops, he could easily finish as a WR1 in 2021.

Julio leaves a high-powered passing attack in Atlanta that threw the football more than any other team over the past three seasons to join Tennessee, a team that has thrown the football the fewest amount of times over that same span. See where I'm going with this? This should not be seen as a good move for Julio. It's a great move for Tennessee, but we should not expect better numbers for Julio on a team that passes as sparingly as the Titans. They already have an alpha wide receiver, and a dominate running back that will handle close to 300 carries and run in 15+ touchdowns. I like Julio as a mid-to-late WR2 for 2021.

The WR10 of 2020 had a season that was largely fueled by his 3rd ranked 14 TD receptions. 33.1% of his fantasy points came via touchdowns. He scored twice as many TDs as teammate Justin Jefferson on 14 fewer receptions. That's a number that will surely come down. He has a lot of competition to reach the endzone in 2021 and should be viewed more as a mid-range WR2 vs a back-end WR1.

Kupp went from being the WR4 in 2019 to the WR26 in 2020 and he only caught two fewer passes. Crazy right? Well, that's what happens when you only score 3 TDs. Expect that number to go up in 2021. I have him as a back-end WR2.

If Justin Jefferson could do what he did in 2020, why can't the better LSU WR do the same in Cincinnati? While, it will be difficult for him to do that well, it's possible. I have him as a WR2 with WR1 upside.

After only playing in 5 games in 2020, Golladay signed a 4-year deal with New York and traded in Matt Stafford for Daniel Jones. I see this as a downgrade. Not only because of the downgrade in QB, but also better surrounding talent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Golladay finishes outside the Top 24 WRs.

As a whole this WR unit will be great, but individually I only see 12-14 points per game for Boyd and Higgins. I like them as high-upside WR3s.

Sutton had a great 2019 season, but blew out his knee early last season. If he can return to form, which I think he can, I see him returning to that back-end WR2 range. But his ceiling will be capped due to QB-play and surrounding talent competition.

Aiyuk had a great rookie season averaging 15.4 points per game on 8 targets per game. There are good reasons to be excited about him in 2021. My main hesitation with both is that I expect this team to get back to running the ball a lot. They only ran 42% of the time in 2020, but that number 52% in 2019 when they went to the Super Bowl. And with Vegas expecting this team to be good, I see them getting back to that. I also expect Trey to start at some point, and a running QB tends to lead to less opportunities for the skill positions. Having said all of that, I think both are fine at their current ADP of WR27 and WR39.

All of these WRs in Pittsburgh are bunched sort of close together, and Claypool I have 3rd of the bunch. I expect him to continue to be a big play, boom/bust type player. 1/4 of his fantasy points came via touchdowns. If you watched the game vs the Eagles where he found the endzone 4 times, this is no surprise. Unfortunately, that will be difficult to replicate. Claypool is a WR3 for me in 2021.

Odell just hasn’t been the same since he joined Cleveland. Now he is returning from a torn ACL. While he has the talent and ability to return to being an elite WR, his team lacks the pass volume necessary for him to be an elite fantasy option. His 6.1 targets per game ranked 49th at the position. OBJ might not even be a WR2 option in 2021. Crazy!

As a whole this WR unit will be great, but individually I only see 12-14 points per game for Boyd and Higgins. I like them as high-upside WR3s.

I'm interested to see how Chark can do with a competent QB who can throw the ball downfield because we know he is a great deep threat. I think we see a bounce-back season from the 4th-year WR and like him as a back-end WR2.

JuJu was only slightly worse than Diontae in 2020. His 14.6 ppg ranked 24th at the position. That's about where I have him in 2021. I see him as a back-end WR2 with limited upside and slight TD dependency.

Anderson and D.J. Moore had very similar 2020 seasons where Anderson outscored him by just 13 points. Both were unlucky in the TD Department with only a combined 7 TDs (3 for Robby). The number will most certainly go up. Even so, Anderson's ADP of WR35 feels about right. I have him slightly higher than that, but I still have my reservations about this team and how good the QB play will be in 2021.

I don't have a lot of optimism for the Dolphins' receiving core in 2021, and see the three of them finishing closely in total points. I like the players, but I don't love the volume. I see them cannibalising each other, with no receiver really taking over a high target share on a team that ranked 18th in pass attempts in 2020. We will be lucky to see any of these WRS having a 20%+ target share. I like Fuller most, but I think at best he's a WR3 this season.

Deebo's 2.2 yard average depth of target is concerning. He just doesn't get a lot of passes downfield. Add to that S.F. will likely run the ball more in 2020, and have a young QB who will look to scramble. I see Deebo as a WR4 in 2021.

Samuel was a pleasant surprise in 2020, finishing as the WR23. While I don't see him finishing that high in 2021, I do think he's a nice WR3 / flex play in 2021.

Cooks quietly had a decent season averaging 15.5 points per game. Again though, that was with Watson at QB, and without him, YIKES! Another thing to point out is that Cooks scored 40 points, 17% of his overall total during his week 17 matchup vs Tennessee. Removing that sort of meaningless game and you're now looking at the WR32 in points per game vs the WR17. I think he's a mid-range WR3 in 2021.

The 1st round pick from Alabama had an underwhelming rookie campaign. He was the WR58 in points per game. I'm willing to give him a pass and a clean slate however based on the fact that he had to endure 4 games with a quarterback combination of Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, and rookie WR turned emergency QB Kendall Hinton. He's a WR4 with WR3 upside.

Speaking of the "Percy Harvin" role, that seems like the perfect way to describe Shenault. He's a big/strong WR who can do a lot with the ball close to the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, I see ETN stealing a lot of that work which will limit Laviska's opportunity and limit his ceiling to a WR3 for 2021.

All the reasons I’m low on Odell can also be applied to Jarvis. The volume just won’t be there and Jarvis will be lucky to finish in the Top 40 wrs.

Gallup should continue to be the odd man out in the receiving core. His 10.8 points per game ranked 51st last season. I do expect that number to go up slightly and he probably breaks the top 40 next year, but he will be very boom or bust.

It's hard to get excited about either 1st round WR in 2021 with what we saw from Hurts passing numbers last year. The Eagles were bottom 5 in pass yards and neither WR should be seen as a red-zone threat. Eagles' WRs should be looked at similarly to how we look at WRs in Baltimore. They are an avoid for me.

I don't have a lot of optimism for the Dolphins' receiving core in 2021, and see the three of them finishing closely in total points. I like the players, but I don't love the volume. I see them cannibalising each other, with no receiver really taking over a high target share on a team that ranked 18th in pass attempts in 2020. We will be lucky to see any of these WRS having a 20%+ target share. I like Fuller most, but I think at best he's a WR3 this season.

It likely won't be pretty for these two WRs for 2021. As stated above, the Ravens finished last in pass attempts in 2020, and as long as Lamar is taking the snaps, that will likely continue. They will have some boom performances here and there, but they won't be reliable and are likely to finish outside of the Top 40 WRs.

There was a two-week period where Pittman looked like another one of the WRs from the '20 draft class who was about to take off. During weeks 10-11, he racked up 188 yards and a touchdown, good for 35 fantasy points. Unfortunately, that was all the good we got from him. Those were the only two games he was able to score more than 10 fantasy points. Looking ahead, I don't know that it will get much better. This team will rely heavily on Taylor and the run game, and he will be competing with Hilton and Campbell for targets. I like him as a WR4.

Remember what I wrote about Justin Herbert's passing numbers? Well, Mike Williams was one of his WRs and only managed to be the 56th best WR on a points per game basis. He's no better than a WR4 for fantasy who could provide a few multi-touchdown games, but good luck trying to time those.

I like this WR group from an NFL standpoint and I like them for Zach Wilson, but I don't love it for fantasy. Out of the group I like Davis and Crowder the most as a WR3 or flex play on most rosters, but I don't see any from this group breaking the Top 36.

The underappreciated slot WR finished as the WR27 in 2020. There is no reason to think he can't come close to similar numbers in 2021. His TD% of 11.6% can easily go up with similar volume.

I don't have a lot of optimism for the Dolphins' receiving core in 2021, and see the three of them finishing closely in total points. I like the players, but I don't love the volume. I see them cannibalising each other, with no receiver really taking over a high target share on a team that ranked 18th in pass attempts in 2020. We will be lucky to see any of these WRS having a 20%+ target share. I like Fuller most, but I think at best he's a WR3 this season.

Mecole is in line for a bump in usage with the departure of Sammy Watkins, but I don't think it will be that significant. The team still has Demarcus Robinson who will also see a bump. I see his targets going up by maybe 1 or two per game, but he will still be only the 4th best option and likely won't see a target share north of 15%. He's a WR5 / desperate flex option in most leagues.

The father of LA cornerback Jaylen Ramsey (according to his Wikipedia) was a nice surprise in 2020. He showed great route running and big-play ability. While he's not likely to be a consistent option for fantasy managers, he can fill in as a nice flex play during bye weeks. I see him as a big-play WR5 for 2021.

It's hard to get excited about either 1st round WR in 2021 with what we saw from Hurts passing numbers last year. The Eagles were bottom 5 in pass yards and neither WR should be seen as a red-zone threat. Eagles' WRs should be looked at similarly to how we look at WRs in Baltimore. They are an avoid for me.

This might be the weakest WR core we have seen in quite some time. Perriman is likely their best option and I don't even expect him to finish as a WR4. Williams is similar to Perriman though not as explosive and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown is a 4th round pick. The corp is a complete avoid.

I'm not expecting much from the rest of the WRs behind Hopkins. I like Green the most as a WR5 / flex option. He only scored 2 touchdowns on 47 receptions. That number should go up in 2021. As for Kirk, Moore and Isabella, they will all likely have a few big plays here and there, but won't be reliable options.

I like this WR group from an NFL standpoint and I like them for Zach Wilson, but I don't love it for fantasy. Out of the group I like Davis and Crowder the most as a WR3 or flex play on most rosters, but I don't see any from this group breaking the Top 36.

It's difficult to get excited about any Patriot WR. This is likely to be a very low-volume passing team and no WR really stands to benefit in this scheme. It's going to be hard for any of them to sniff a WR3 season. I'm staying away.

It likely won't be pretty for these two WRs for 2021. As stated above, the Ravens finished last in pass attempts in 2020, and as long as Lamar is taking the snaps, that will likely continue. They will have some boom performances here and there, but they won't be reliable and are likely to finish outside of the Top 40 WRs.

This is not a very exciting group for fantasy and not one I'm looking to target in any of my drafts. John Brown and Henry Ruggs are similar style deep threat WRs who will be far behind Waller in the chain of targets and offer very little as far as every week consistency or upside. At best I see them as WR4-5's.

I like this WR group from an NFL standpoint and I like them for Zach Wilson, but I don't love it for fantasy. Out of the group I like Davis and Crowder the most as a WR3 or flex play on most rosters, but I don't see any from this group breaking the Top 36.

It's difficult to stand out playing alongside Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, which is why Marshall was not a well-known player by most coming into the 2021 NFL Draft. After the 2021 season, people will. The 2nd round pick is a big and fast WR who can ball and gets reunited with his former OC from LSU Joe Brady who helped him notch 13 TDs during his sophomore season. I'm not expecting much from him in 2021, but he's a player I'm excited about long-term.

When healthy, Campbell has been decent and performed, but that's the thing, he hasn't been on the field much. In fact, he's only appeared in 9 games during his two years in the league. I don't think he can finish as anything higher than a WR3, but I like him about as much as I do Hilton and Pittman, but the cost to acquire is a couple of rounds later. So I actually like him at cost the most out of the WR corp.

Remember how good Hilton used to be? Well, the perennial high-upside WR2 hasn't finished inside the Top 40 the past two seasons. Health has played a part, but even last year in 15 games he was only able to rack up 762 yards. He will never be a high-touchdown scorer and is now playing in his age 31 season. He does have a QB that can throw the ball downfield now, but I wonder how elite his speed still is. I think he will have some boom weeks here and there, but he will also have a low floor. I like him as a back-end WR3 / high-end WR4 for '21.

If I’m low on Kenny, that can’t be good for the rest of the WR core. The only one I have some interest in drafting is Shepard due to his consistency of averaging around 14 points per game over the past couple seasons.