Fantasy Stud: J.K. Dobbins

One player think has all the potential to be an elite dynasty back is Ravens’ Running Back, J.K. Dobbins. It was easy to get excited about him heading into his rookie year, not only by what he had accomplished in college (2000 rushing yards his junior year), but also the team he landing with, Baltimore, where a 30-year-old Mark Ingram was able to finish as the RB11 the year prior. Let’s dive into some stats from Dobbins’ rookie season.

Games Played = 16
Snap % = 48.5% (32nd)
Opportunity Share = 39% (44th)

• Rush Att = 134 (33rd)
• Rushing Yards = 805 (16th)
• Yards Per Carry = 6.0 (1st)
• Receptions = 18 (51st)
• Rec Yards = 120 (58th)
• Total TDS = 9 (16th)
• PPG = 11.2 (RB33)
• Overall Finish = 168.5 points / RB24

When looking at his stats from above, Dobbins efficiency really jumps out. 6 yards per carry is very good. It ranked 1st in the NFL. Part of that can be attributed to him, and part to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ scheme. Last season Mark Ingram averaged 5.

Unfortunately Dobbins did not get quite the usage his owners were hoping for. Even though it looked like he might given Ingram missed 6 games due to injury. Over the course of the entire season he averaged a snap share below 50%. In fact it was nearly identical to Ingram’s snap share from the previous season. Which does create some concern for him ever becoming a true workhorse. The RBBC (running back by committee) approach employed by the Ravens’ coaching staff never allowed Dobbins to thrive. Anyone who has played fantasy football knows that volume is king, and if you’re not getting a lot of volume, it caps your ceiling. The elite workhorse backs who average at minimum 20 carries a game are the true difference makers in fantasy football. And honestly, at only 5’10” and 209 pounds, that may never be Dobbins role. He’s just not big enough to withstand a full season or a workload that heavy. He also has a QB who is more likely to scramble with his legs than dump the ball of which limits his receptions.

What Dobbins lacks in volume he can make up for (to a certain extent) with efficiency. And we will likely see his usage increase. The Ravens released Mark Ingram which is huge. The Ravens are the most run heavy team in the NFL and have been ever since Lamar took over. So just a little increase in snap share can do wonders to increase his usage. I do expect Dobbins snap share to increase next season. Probably not to the elite levels we would like, but 60-70% or so I can see. That alone can put him in RB1 consideration, and if he ever gets the type of usage we saw from Cam Akers or Jonathan Taylor towards the end of the season, look out.